In digital advertising, incrementality helps advertisers understand whether their campaigns are driving new conversions—or if those actions would have happened anyway. Traditional models like last-click attribution often overvalue the final interaction, missing earlier touchpoints. Multi-touch attribution spreads credit across multiple interactions but struggles to tell which touchpoints truly influenced the outcome versus those that happened by chance.
Incrementality solves these challenges by measuring the real impact of campaigns, answering the question: Did my ads drive actions that would not have occurred otherwise? In the complex world of programmatic and CTV, incrementality ensures every dollar is invested in what works. This article covers:
What incrementality means
Why it’s essential for programmatic and CTV advertising
How to measure it
Strategies to improve incrementality
What is Incrementality?
Incrementality measures how much of your campaign’s performance is directly caused by your advertising efforts. This means identifying how many conversions or actions were truly driven by your ads, compared to what would have happened without them.
For example:
Imagine you run a campaign, and 1,000 people convert. Incrementality determines how many of those conversions wouldn’t have happened without your ads—perhaps only 300 were truly incremental.
This approach helps avoid the common mistake of over-attributing success to ads that didn’t actually make a difference. Unlike last-click or multi-touch attribution, which focus on distributing credit across touchpoints, incrementality isolates the true effect of your campaign.
Why Incrementality Matters in Programmatic and CTV Advertising
Incrementality ensures that advertisers can measure true impact and optimize campaign performance. Here are some key reasons why it’s important:
Avoid Over-Attribution:
Last-click models often give too much credit to the final interaction, even if earlier steps were more influential. Incrementality provides a clearer picture.
Clarify Multi-Touch Journeys:
Multi-touch attribution distributes credit across several touchpoints but struggles to identify what really caused the conversion. Incrementality isolates these causal effects.
Optimize Budgets:
Incrementality results highlight which campaigns or channels drive the most additional conversions, enabling better budget allocation.
Adapt to the Loss of Cookies:
As third-party cookies disappear, incrementality offers a privacy-friendly alternative for measuring performance without relying on user tracking.
Build Client Trust:
Incrementality demonstrates real value to clients by showing which campaigns made a measurable difference.
How to Measure Incrementality in Programmatic and CTV Advertising
To measure incrementality, you need to compare the performance of people exposed to your ads with a similar group that isn’t. This helps determine how much of the outcome was directly caused by your campaign. Here's a step-by-step process:
1. Create a Test vs. Control Group
Test Group: This group receives your ads.
Control Group: This group is not shown your ads and serves as a baseline for comparison.
The goal is to see if the test group performs better than the control group, proving your campaign drove additional results.
2. Use Geo-Split or Audience-Split Testing
Geo-Split Testing: Run ads in one region but not in another, comparing performance across both regions.
Audience-Split Testing: Show ads to only part of your target audience, leaving the rest unexposed to serve as the control group.
3. Simplified Formula for Incremental Lift
Think of it this way:
Incremental Lift = (Test Group Results - Control Group Results) ÷ Control Group Results × 100
Example:
Test Group: 200 conversions
Control Group: 150 conversions
Incremental Lift = (200 - 150) ÷ 150 × 100 = 33% increase
This means your campaign resulted in 33% more conversions than if the ads hadn’t run.
4. Brand Lift Studies for Upper-Funnel Campaigns
For CTV campaigns focused on awareness or consideration, conduct surveys before and after the campaign to measure how much your ads improved brand sentiment.
5. Use Incrementality Measurement Tools
Platforms like Google Ads and Facebook offer built-in tools to measure campaign lift.
Third-party vendors such as Nielsen or LiveRamp provide specialized incrementality studies.
Strategies to Boost Incrementality in Programmatic & CTV Campaigns
To maximize the incremental lift from your campaigns, try these strategies:
1. Target High-Intent Audiences
Use behavioral data and contextual targeting to reach users who are likely to convert but haven’t yet acted.
2. Utilize First-Party Data
As third-party cookies phase out, rely on your own data to create relevant, personalized campaigns.
3. Optimize Frequency Caps
Avoid bombarding users with too many ads, which can lead to diminishing returns. Aim for the right balance to keep users engaged.
4. Use Dynamic Creative Optimization (DCO)
Serve personalized ads in real-time, increasing relevance and engagement.
5. Incorporate Time-Sensitive Promotions
Flash sales or limited-time offers can push users to act quickly, driving incremental conversions.
6. Test, Measure, and Iterate
Continuously run A/B tests on messaging, placements, and targeting to identify what drives the highest lift.
Incremental Lift Example
Metric | Test Group | Control Group | Incremental Lift (%) |
Conversions | 200 | 150 | 33% |
Conversion Rate | 5% | 3.8% | 31.6% |
Revenue Generated | $10,000 | $7,500 | 33% |
Best Practices for Programmatic Traders and Media Managers
Align Testing with Campaign Goals
Ensure incrementality testing reflects your main KPIs, such as CPA or ROAS.
Communicate Results Effectively
Share insights with stakeholders to show how your campaigns drive real value.
Incorporate Incrementality into Media Mix Modeling (MMM)
Use MMM to understand how all channels work together and ensure incrementality insights guide overall strategy.
Partner with Trusted Vendors
Work with platforms that specialize in causal measurement to improve accuracy.
Combine Performance and Brand Metrics
Blend brand lift with incremental results to show both short-term performance and long-term value.
Incrementality ensures programmatic and CTV campaigns focus on driving real outcomes, not just collecting vanity metrics. Traditional attribution models, like last-click and multi-touch, often fall short by either over-crediting or spreading credit without understanding causality. Incrementality solves this problem by measuring the true lift driven by your campaigns.
At Mavern Media, we specialize in helping clients unlock the full potential of their campaigns with incrementality testing and data-driven insights. With the right approach, you can optimize every dollar spent and build trust with stakeholders through measurable, sustainable growth.
Sources & Further Reading:
Nielsen. (2023). The Role of Incrementality in Measuring Advertising Effectiveness.
IAB. (2023). Incrementality: A Guide to Causal Measurement in Advertising.
LiveRamp. (2023). Incrementality Testing: The Next Frontier in Programmatic Advertising.